Richard's origins

It seems to have become a fairly widespread and often mentioned assumption/prediction that Richard arrived on the island on the Black Rock... but I've never read a single argument to explain where this theory came from?

Personally I think it's a perfectly reasonable guess but no more than that - the fact that it is such a widely held opinion makes me think I missed something along the way, in which case can someone help me out!?

Where's the 'evidence' for the theory - is it just that he's really old and the Black Rock's really old??? That can't be all the reasoning surely...

Thanks to anyone who can settle this for me!

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