Okay, sorry for the second post of the night from me; but while I was researching something on the "black and white" motif in Lost, I was struck by a crazy thought: what if Smokey killed the pilot of flight 815 because it was supposed to be Lapidus? I know, I know. Other people have made this argument. Here's where I think mine's different. We now know Lapidus might be a "candidate." Of course we don't know what that is, but someone has speculated it could be there are people who are candidates for reincarnation of Jacob. Not saying I buy that idea, but if it's true, it could be Smokey killed Seth thinking he was killing Lapidus, in order to keep Jacob from coming back to win The War.