I could be wrong, but I don't remember it actually saying anywhere that the "new" flight is on September 22, 2004 (I think that was the original date), or that it is flight 815, or anything about the flight really, besides that it went from Australia to Los Angeles and was an Oceanic flight. This would make sense, going along with Eloise Hawking's explanation of the world's tendency to course-correct itself (ie Charlie, the man with red shoes, etc...), if this were just a different time that the "same" people are on a different flight in an alternate reality, with a few differences in passengers. What if somebody who wasn't on flight 815, like Juliet or Desmond, was "supposed" to be, but couldn't be because they were on the island already. So if this whole thing is some as-of-yet-unexplained competition between Jacob and his Nemesis, then maybe one of them needed certain people on flight 815, and the other one kept those people on the island, therefore keeping them off the plane.

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