Hey guys, I'm reasonably new here and I've been enjoying a lot of the chatting and speculating thats been going on. I thought I'd put up a blog because I've had a couple of ideas ticking over, and after reading up on Walt again something clicked.
Firstly, I'll just lay out where I'm at, theory-wise. I suspect that when all is said and done, the big questions will all have very elegant solutions. These writers and producers are very clever, and I think that all in all most questions will be answered by two or three main revelations. All the little infuriating stuff will be able to be tied back to the core answers, and the motivations of the mysterious characters will be very clear. In short, I doubt the events are going to be part of some gloriously complex Xanatos Gambit, if you are familar with the lingo (www.tvtropes.org).
Okay, here goes. So we know the Island deals with time-travel; there are two pockets of energy, one of which has triggered Desmonds shindig and the other has the wheel which has sent the Losties on some adventures through time. Since it's a small island, time travelling people are bound to encounter objects and situations from their near pasts and futures (1). We've seen this with Sawyer and co in Dharma, and with the MiB setting up the loop of Locke receiving his instructions from Ricardus.
First Assumption: The 815ers aren't the first people in the islands history to get involved in time travel. Further extend and combine it with (1), and we can say it's a given that nearly everyone on the Island is in some way involved with their own history. On the conservative side, Assumption One is that the majority of people on the island are therefore involved in a causal loop.
Connected to this is my theory about certain dialogue. We have heard people say "the island hasn't finished with you" or "you still have work to do". I suggest this is a discreet euphamism used by the Island inhabitants for saying that someone still has actions to complete in a causal loop. It is a much more elegant way of making conversation with someone than awkwardly mentioning that they have some time-travelling or great event left to do. You DON'T have to be a time-traveller to be in a causal loop, for example Michael. It was impossible for him to die while off the Island, because What Happens Happens, and what happened was he blew up the Kahana, which led to some time-travelling, which led to the incident (Assumption Two, because it's possible they reset everything), which led to his plane crashing on the Island. So the Third Assumption is that the natives of the island are reasonably aware that the Island involves causal loops.
With those three assumptions, it makes sense that children on the Island are a God-send. Why? If someone has spent their whole life on the Island, it makes their causal loop much, much, easier to deal with. Every chain of actions and reactions can play out without too much struggle, because everyone is within the same geographical boundaries that requite special knowledge to escape. If someone arrives on the Island as an adult, they have a whole life history, thousands of interactions with other people (tangentially connecting everyone they've met, including their family into their causal loop), not to mention their travel, making for a very complex system that needs to be closed. We are witnessing this now with the 815'ers, especially the O6. The younger you are when you arrive on the island, the less of these problems you have. Being born on the Island would be ideal... but someone went and broke the fertility statue, and we know what that means.
So what do you think? I'd say that's a decent foundation for one of maybe three pillars that would be required to explain everything. It doesn't broach the specific subject of Oceanic 815 though, since according to what I just speculated they would just be one example, one case study, of what happens on this mysterious island. There must be some other missing piece, some other agency that determines why the people on that plane are so important. The fact that they caused themselves to crash there is not enough, because according to my assumptions that's a likely situation for nearly anyone on the island.
Now I want someone to rip this theory to shreds and see what remains standing.