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Dr. Shephard or: How he Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb

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ALERT: Maybe you people wrote a similar post already in here: in this case, excuse mòi.

Jack wanted to save himself, and the others friends of his, by detonating Jughead. In this way, he was sure, he would save everybody, and everybody would magically return on the Oceanic 815 (or directly at LAX) resetting 3 years of (hi)story for all of them.
OK.
My very simple question is: is this really possible?
I mean: where and when he thought they would exactly re-appear? On the plane, at 4:16 of September, 22 2004? This would make sense.
BECAUSE
If the Incident never happened, The Swan wouldn't ever be used for entering The Numbers, so Desmond wouldn't ever fail to enter them on time whilst killing Kelvin and no Oceanic815-Related-System-Failure would happen.
OK.

BUT
How could Jack be sure of this? I mean: If the Incident never happened, there's the case that - for example - the activity of The Swan would lead to a Termonuclear War which would make explode the entire world (LAX included)! How couldn't Jack took care of this evenience?
What do you think about?

ALERT: Sorry for my poor engRish. I promise I'll take lessons from Jin as soon as I can.

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