There were no changes to my Season 6 checklist of predictions with information revealed in The Substitute. However, the episode did raise the possibility of the following theories in the checklist:

  • Jacob's "they're coming" statement refers to some or all of Jack, Kate, Sawyer, Hurley, Sayid and Jin.
Status: Unconfirmed
  • Jacob ordered the supply drop that provided food and supplies to the Losties in November 2004.
Status: Unconfirmed

Current Standings:

  • Unconfirmed: 30
  • Confirmed True: 2
  • Confirmed False: 3


Assuming that Smocke was telling Sawyer the truth about the names on the cave wall, this episode basically confirmed that Jacob intentionally brought the aforementioned Losties to the Island for his purposes. So it seems even more likely now that these are who he was talking about when he said "they're coming". I didn't see Kate's name on the wall, but whether she's a "candidate" or not, my theory will be covered by the "some or all" clause.

I'm not sure if my theory about the food supply drop will ever be confirmed, but it does make sense that if Jacob purposely brought certain people to the Island, he'd make sure they stayed well-fed if they need to survive on their own for a while.

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