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- Richard Alpert arrived on the Island on the Black Rock.
- Status: Probable
- Unconfirmed: 23
- Deemed Probable: 6
- Confirmed True: 3
- Confirmed False: 3
As you can see, I've added a new status type to my checklist: "Probable". I've realized that moreso than actually confirming or debunking my theories, these episodes are revealing information that tends to raise the possibility of confirming my theories, sometimes to the point of suggesting things are true, without truly confirming them. It may even be that the writers intend to leave some of those answers in that state and never come back to fully answer them. If that happens, I would hate for the series to end with so many of my predictions almost confirmed, but left listed as "unconfirmed". And while watching tonight's episode, I got really excited when Richard walked onto the Black Rock and touched the chains and mentioned that it was his first time "back", but then I was disappointed that he didn't say enough for me to be able to confirm my theory as true. Therefore I've added the "probable" status to reflect these types of revelations. I've also gone back and updated the predictions that were deemed probable in other episodes this season.